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Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays for Sunday, April 15, 2012

April 15, 2012

Here are Sunday’s picks for the daily fantasy baseball game at StarStreet. These recommendations take into account a number of variables, including 2011 park factor, batter vs pitcher statistics (though these are often very small sample sizes), recent performance, and any interesting batter or pitcher splits (home/road, day/night, left/right, month). Also included is their current share price for the daily game at StarStreet. Positive indicators are greennegative ones red, and neutral are black.

All-In:

Paul Konerko vs DET (RHP Rick Porcello), 2:10 pm EDT
Today’s StarStreet Price: $7,138/share
Park Factor: U.S. Cellular Field (In 2011, 0.991 for R and 1.230 for HR)
Splits: Since 2009, Konerko has fared slightly worse against righties (.883 OPS) than lefties (.985). However, over that span he’s hit for a higher average by day (.316) than at night (.286). Konerko hits better at home and for a lot more power, with a .604 home SLG over the past three seasons, versus .462 on the road.
Batter vs Pitcher: 7-17 (HR), 3 BB, 1 K
Last 3 games: 4-10 (2B, HR), 3 BB, 4 K
Other: Porcello has struggled in his three previous trips to U.S. Cellular with a 6.88 ERA, .333 opponent AVG, and 3 HR allowed in 17.0 IP.

Jose Bautista vs BAL (LHP Brian Matusz), 1:07 pm EDT
Today’s StarStreet Price: $8,773/share
Park Factor: Rogers Centre (In 2011, 1.152 for R and 1.186 for HR)
Splits: JoeyBats murdered left-handed pitching in 2011, to the tune of a .336/.484/.672 triple slash, with a home run once every 10.8 at-bats. While not nearly as pronounced, his splits were also better at home and in day games last year.
Batter vs Pitcher: 1-3, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SB
Last 3 games: 2-10, 1 BB, 2 K
Other: I wrote about Matusz and his historically bad 2011 numbers in Monday’s column. I’m bullish on all Blue Jays in Sunday’s lineup, especially RH hitters. Yunel Escobar ($5,644; 2-2 with a home run against Matusz) is definitely worth a look. In Matusz’s first start last week against the Yankees, he managed to keep the ball in the park, but allowed 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, and just 1 K in 4 IP. He also recorded 13 fly ball outs to just 3 ground ball outs. I’d be shocked to see that kind of HR/FB luck repeat itself very often.

Solid Values:

Jayson Werth vs CIN (RHP Mike Leake), 1:35 pm EDT
Today’s StarStreet Price: $6,446/share
Park Factor: Nationals Park (In 2011, 0.955 for R and 1.110 for HR)
Splits: In his one season as a National, Werth hit for an OPS of .737 at home versus .699 on the road. Over the larger sample of the past three seasons, he has hit lefties better than righties (.896 to .819 OPS) and better at night than during the day (.863 to .786).
Batter vs Pitcher: 4-10 (HR), 2 BB, 2 K
Last 3 games: 6-14 (2B), 1 BB, 2 K
Other: In one career start at Nationals Park, Leake went 6 innings, allowing 5 ER and 2 HR. He’s pitched well over the last two Aprils though, with a record of 5-0, a 3.86 ERA, and a .242 opponent AVG. He also has better road than home numbers in ERA, opponent AVG, and K:BB ratio.

Shane Victorino vs NYM (RHP Mike Pelfrey), 1:35 pm EDT
Today’s StarStreet Price: $7,340/share
Park Factor: Citizens Bank Park (In 2011, 0.997 for R and 0.950 for HR)
Splits: Victorino has negligible home/road and day/night splits over the past 3 years. He has a pretty significant righty/lefty platoon split though, with a .921 OPS against LHP and a .756 OPS against RHP since 2009.
Batter vs Pitcher: 15-48 (.313 AVG, 3 2B, 3B, HR), 2 BB, 6 K, 7 SB
Last 3 games: 3-13 (HR), 0 BB, 3 K
Other: Since 2009, Pelfrey has been much more hittable during the day and away from Citi Field. His road ERA over that span (5.7o) is more than two runs worse than his home mark (3.44), and his ERA in day games (5.57) is substantially higher than at night (4.05). In his 2012 debut against the Nationals, Pelfrey posted good fielding-independent numbers (8 K, 1 BB, and 0 HR over 5.2 IP) but did allow 10 hits and 3 ER.

Small Sample Size Wild Card:

J.D. Martinez @ MIA (RHP Anibal Sanchez), 1:10 pm EDT
Today’s StarStreet Price: $5,903/share
Park Factor: 2012 is the inaugural season for Marlins Park. In three games there have been a total of 23 runs scored and one home run hit (by J.D. Martinez!).
Splits: Has only 234 Major League at-bats, probably too small a sample from which to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Batter vs Pitcher: First meeting.
Last 3 games: 5-11 (2 HR), 4 BB, 0 K
Other: Martinez enters Sunday hitting .379 with a hit in every game this year. As a Cuban-American and South Florida native, he may have some additional motivation for this series in Miami.

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